2016 bellwether counties

Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". University of New Hampshire . Demographics (84) There are 391 such counties. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Read about our approach to external linking. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. 9. Trump won the other 18 counties. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. (subject to censorship). So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Go on, look them up! The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Still, the state's worth watching. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. 8. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. In communities . 6. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. our Gitlab account where you can Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Suggest an improvement, report an issue, What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Will That Last?]. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. It's the wrong question. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Team up with others in your region, and help out by You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Read about our approach to external linking. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. University of Denver, 2. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. 3. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. 4. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. But both are worth watching. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. 10. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Arapahoe County. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. What results did you discover? One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. It gets a lot more interesting. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Voter Demographics (9). But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. hide caption. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. That report was issued on Nov. 12. (i.e. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Enter Donald Trump. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem.

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