Additional meteorological forcings needed for hydrologic model simulations (e.g., net incoming long- and shortwave radiation, dew point temperature, etc.) Reductions in spring snowpack and summer streamflow, for example, are relatively modest in the Canadian portions of the basin because of cold winter temperatures that delay warming-related impacts to seasonal snowpack (Elsner et al., Citation2010). RSUM[Traduit par la rdaction] Le projet de scnarios de changement climatique du bassin du Columbia (CBCCSP) a t conu comme une base de donnes hydrologiques complte pour appuyer les activits de planification, dvaluation des rpercussions et d'adaptation dans la rgion pacifique nordouest menes par une communaut d'utilisateurs diversifie disposant de capacits techniques varies dans une large gamme dchelles spatiales. This extreme scenario, however, was only run by a few GCMs, which ultimately limits the ability to show consistent ranges of outcomes for each emissions scenario. To learn about our use of cookies and how you can manage your cookie settings, please see our Cookie Policy. Dark red lines show the average of the climate change ensemble. Key products from the study include detailed summary data for about 300 river sites in the PNW and monthly GIS products for 21 hydrologic variables over the entire study domain. The model shows reasonably good calibration statistics for the majority of the sites, and the calibration is robust (showing equally good or better statistics in the validation period when compared with the calibration period). The CBCCSP also included fine-scale hydrologic modelling using DHSVM (Wigmosta et al., Citation1994, Citation2002) in four pilot watersheds in the PNW. These include the following: Columbia River Basin Impact Assessment: Reclamation conducted the Columbia River Basin Impact Assessment to evaluate the potential effects of future climate change on river flows at 158 locations across the basin. 3 Summary map of 80 streamflow locations (out of a total of 297) for which error statistics between simulated and naturalized flows were computed. 9. 8 Monthly mean hydrographs not adjusted for bias (water year: OctoberSeptember) for four representative river sites in the PNW: Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam (upper left), Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon (upper right), Yakima River at Parker (lower left), and the Chehalis River at Grand Mound (lower right). Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the 21st century, Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments, Uncertainties in hydrologic and climate change impact analyses in headwater basins of British Columbia. What Matters Most: Are Future Stream Temperatures More Sensitive to Changing Air Temperatures, Discharge, or Riparian Vegetation? A low pressure system slowly moving offshore is forecast to spin moisture into the Columbia Basin Sunday as it meanders closer to the Southern Oregon Coast. Warming of the global climate is unequivocal. A family of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios used in the IPCC effort (Nakienovi et al. Uniqueness is also evident by looking at the Columbia River Basin. Full knowledge of the preceding steps is not required to use the products obtained at any level of the study, which increases the utility of the products. 6 Example of a summary plot for extreme high flows (Q20, Q50, Q100, left panels) and extreme low flows (7Q10, right panels) for the Skagit River at Mount Vernon for two emissions scenarios (A1B, B1) and three future time periods (2020s, 2040s, 2080s). Figure 10 shows a map of Q100 ratios (future Q100 to historical Q100) for 297 river locations and a scatterplot of the Q100 ratio as a function of winter temperature regime in each basin. A primary motivation for the study was to support planning at geographic scales ranging from relatively small river basins (e.g., planning studies in individual sub-basins, such as the Yakima or Okanagan basins) to main-stem planning studies for the CRB as a whole (e.g., planning studies for the Columbia River hydro system). Funding was received by WSU to carry out research quantifying crop water demand, water resources system performance, and economic impacts under current climate conditions and a range of future climate scenarios. But as researchers continue to fine tune climate models, shifting demand for water now must be accounted for, say Washington State University scientists. Inset numbers at the upper left in the future projections are the percentage changes in 1 April SWE averaged over each grid cell in the entire domain. The CBCCSP (and extensions over the west) has greatly reduced the costs of these types of studies by supplying (at essentially no cost) a wide range of high-quality hydrologic scenarios as a foundation for further work. The Assessment was initiated in June 2013 and is expected to completed in December 2015. Source: Each of the six panels in the figure shows the long-term monthly mean for the 10 (9 for B1) HD GCM scenarios (red lines) and the historical simulations (blue lines). (1 April SWE and SWE2PR values were calculated using the CD VIC scenarios.). These products are based solely on the CD and HD projections listed in Table 1. The results were only slightly better than those achieved in the large-scale calibration. Treaty Relating to Cooperative Development of the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin, United States of AmericaCanada, January 17, 1961September 16, 1964, 15 U.S.T. Note that unlike the raw VIC flux files discussed above (Table 2), imperial units are used for these products on the study website (cubic feet per second, inches, degrees Fahrenheit). (2005). Hamlet, and S.-Y. Although results from the WACCIA would arguably have been adequate to support WDOE's adaptation planning, the CBCCSP provided additional foundation support for these efforts, and helped improve confidence in the outcomes of the adaptation strategies identified by better quantifying a range of outcomes. Three base flow parameters (Ds max, Ds, Ws) associated with the non-linear baseflow curve from the third soil layer (Liang et al., Citation1994) were used to calibrate the model. Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine. Blue lines show the average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). Fig. The CBCCSP provided climate change projections of meteorological drivers and a calibrated VIC implementation in support of the study. Statistics for hydrologic extreme events (as discussed above) are presented in a different format, shown in Fig. To support ecosystem research and impacts assessment, CIG extended the project to include specific meteorological and hydrological variables needed to support ecological studies (see discussion in Section 3). The sweeping statements in the 2007 IPCC AR4 (Solomon et al., Citation2007) regarding the scientific consensus on observed warming (unequivocal) and the direct human role in the alteration of the climate system (90% confidence) made it clear to many management professionals that the waiting game for climate change planning was nearing an end. This is likely because soil moisture is higher in summer west of the Cascade Range and evapotranspiration is mostly energy limited, whereas east of the mountains the late summer soil moisture is already very low in the current climate and increasing evapotranspiration does not result in much additional soil moisture stress. Gridded meteorological datasets (daily total precipitation and maximum and minimum daily temperature) at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution (approximately 7km by 5km) were constructed for the study from observed station records for the period 1915 to 2006. (, Washington State Department of Community Trade and Economic Development, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, A Monte Carlo hydropower and water resources simulation model developed by the NWPCC, Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling method, HYDropower SIMulation, a hydropower and water resources simulation model used by the BPA in the CRB, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. La base de donnes du CBCCSP s'est avre une ressource publique prcieuse qui a permis de rduire normment les cots lis un certain nombre dtudes de haute visibilit dans la rgion pacifique nordouest et dans l'ouest des tatsUnis axes sur la coordination technique et la planification. In relatively small basins (approximately 5001500km2), of which there are a substantial number included in the study, errors in meteorological driving data are often a strong determinant of simulation errors. Blue lines show average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). Read on for information on our current project. Gridded datasets provide full spatial coverage (i.e., all grid cells in the model domain) at monthly time scales, of the key hydroclimatic variables listed in Table 2. This approach was partly based on practical limitations on time and computational resources but was also informed by previous experience using the VIC model at finer spatial scales. Snow water equivalent, the water content of the snowpack expressed as a depth, Peak snow water equivalent to cool-season precipitation ratio, Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. This was coordinated through the River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC), a sub-committee of the Joint Operating Committee which was established through direct funding Memorandum of Agreements between BPA, Reclamation, and the USACE. Primary support for the project was provided by WDOE, with additional major support provided by the BPA, NWPCC, BCME, OWRD, and CTED via the 2009 WACCIA (http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml) (Miles et al., Citation2010). 10 Left panel: Changes in Q100 for 297 streamflow locations expressed as a ratio of Q100 for the future period to Q100 for the historical period based on the average of the nine or ten HD scenarios for the B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. Instead, these areas respond primarily to projected changes in precipitation until late in the twenty-first century, and in fact some of these areas show modest increases in SWE (about +5%) until the middle of the twenty-first century under the combined effects of warming and increasing cool season precipitation. 120 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<6FB239FABFBE0241AD2ED78CAB939AAB><0AF5FFF7A9777A438917926E6F546C9A>]/Index[95 41]/Info 94 0 R/Length 116/Prev 312890/Root 96 0 R/Size 136/Type/XRef/W[1 3 1]>>stream The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project (CBCCSP) was conceived as a comprehensive hydrologic database to support climate change planning, impacts assessment, and adaptation in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) by a diverse user community with varying technical capacity over a wide range of spatial scales. Until recently, a climate-change induced shift in water supply was the story of the Columbia River Basin's future. Retrieved from, Climate change and resource management in the Columbia River Basin. Lvapotranspiration potentielle augmente dans la majeure partie de la rgion du Pacifique et du NordOuest en t cause des tempratures plus leves; cependant, lvaporation relle est rduite dans presque tous les secteurs du domaine parce que lvapotranspiration est principalement limite par l'eau en t et les prcipitations estivales diminuent dans les simulations. This web site provides streamflow information for the Columbia River and coastal drainages in Washington and Oregon State for the 21st century based on a large number of climate scenarios and model experiments. Both calibration and validation periods were chosen to test model performance over a wide range of climate and streamflow conditions. In other words, although at these sites the model results do not match the observations in the absolute sense (large bias), the relative changes follow the observed variations quite well (high R 2). Although these ongoing research and outreach efforts had already laid an extensive foundation in support of pilot climate services in the PNW, starting in 20062007 it was realized that a much more comprehensive and focused effort to provide hydrologic climate change scenarios was needed if stakeholders and water professionals in the region were to take the next steps in preparing for climate change. Regional summaries were prepared by Tohver et al. Source: Bonneville Power Administration. Blue traces show monthly averages for historical conditions; the pink bands show the range of projected change associated with each scenario and future time period; the red lines show the average of the future ensemble. 135 0 obj <>stream (2011). %%EOF Hi/Low, RealFeel, precip, radar, & everything you need to be ready for the day, commute, and . Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. This daily disaggregation technique sometimes introduces an undesirable discontinuity in the bias-corrected daily values at the beginning and end of months. Glacier outlines are automatically generated from satellite imagery and are provided by, Species and Ecosystems at Risk as identified by the, Current bioclimates and modeled bioclimates for three future climate scenarios in 2080s. Among its most useful features is the predominantly physical basis of the model, which largely avoids concerns about parameter stationarity in a changing climate. However, some areas west of the Cascade Range and in the northern Rockies show increasing AET. Changes in PET (PET3, see Table 2) and AET (see Table 2) are shown in Fig. Observations around the world demonstrate that the global atmosphere has been warming rapidly since the 1970s, with temperatures up an average of 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit in that time and expected to increase between 1 and 4 degrees by the 2030s, Pytlak said. Monday: A chance of snow before 4 p.m., then a slight chance of rain and snow. West-wide studies to support USFS and USFWS needs (including current efforts to include California) will have a budget of less than half this amount, a level of efficiency that would not have been achievable without the CBCCSP pilot effort. The largest increases in flooding are in mixed-rain-and-snow basins whose mid-winter temperatures are presently within a few degrees of freezing. The objective function for the optimization process in this case was: where Q is the monthly streamflow; NSE(Q) is the NSE (monthly flow), which varies between [inf, 1] and typically between [0,1]; NSE(log(Q+1)) is the NSE (monthly flow), which varies between [inf, 1] (this metric places less emphasis on high flow errors in calculating NSE); Vol_Err(Q) is the annual volume error (in 1000 acre feet); R 2(Q)=R 2 (squared correlation coefficient between simulated and observed Q), which varies between [0,1]; Peak_Diff(Q) is the mean hydrograph peak differencethe absolute value varies for different sites; RMSE(Q) is the root mean square error, whose absolute value varies for different sites; and NumSC(Q) is the number of sign changes in the errors (this metric penalizes simulations with too much month-to-month variability in comparison with observations). are estimated by the VIC hydrologic model (discussed below) using empirical methods described by Kimball, Running and Nemani (Citation1997) and Thornton and Running (Citation1999). Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the Northwest U.S. from 1980 - 2009 and implications for salmonid fishes. 7). unpublished manuscript). As mentioned in the introduction, WA HB2860, which provided the bulk of the funding for the CBCCSP, also charged WDOE with identifying where US$200 million earmarked for water resources infrastructure improvements should be spent. An Overview of the Columbia Basin Climat . : From Icefield to Estuary: The Columbia Basin / Du champ de glace l'estuaire : Le bassin du Columbia, 6 Use of products and information by stakeholders, water professionals, and researchers, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2013.819555, http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00417.1, http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/products/sites/, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2715:IMOET>2.0.CO;2, http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/report/, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2002)128:2(91), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1999)125:6(333), doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2009)135:6(440), doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2313:SOTEHS>2.0.CO;2, http://cses.washington.edu/picea/USFS/pub/Littell_etal_2010/Littell_etal._2011_Regional_Climatic_And_Hydrologic_Change_USFS_USFWS_JVA_17Apr11.pdf, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2, http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/5/, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2, http://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/newsrelease/detail.cfm?RecordID=39123, http://www.usbr.gov/pn/programs/climatechange/reports/index.html, http://www.fws.gov/landscape-conservation/lcc.html, http://www.ecy.wa.gov/biblio/1112011.html, Medicine, Dentistry, Nursing & Allied Health, Simulated daily evapotranspiration from all sources, actual evaporation from all sources (canopy evaporation, evaporation from bare soil, transpiration, and snow sublimation), natural vegetation, no water limit, but no vegetation stomatal resistance, Extreme 7-day low flow value with a 10-year recurrence interval. The interested reader is directed to the CBCCSP report (Hamlet, Carrasco, et al., Citation2010a, Chapter 6) for a detailed discussion of methods and results. (Citation2010), but the essential idea behind the methods is that monthly gridded data are based only on serially complete and quality-controlled HCN and AHCCD stations (thus ensuring self-consistent long-term trends based on the same group of stations), but daily variations within the month come from re-gridded daily co-op station data, which add additional spatial detail on an event basis at daily time scales (Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation2005). Three VIC model calibration parameters described above were varied in the optimization process, and six error metrics were used to define the objective function: squared correlation coefficient (R 2), NSE, the NSE of log-transformed data, annual volume error, mean hydrograph peak difference, RMSE, and number of sign changes in the simulated streamflow errors. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. In addition, some observed streamflow data are suitable for use as natural data if the effects of storage and diversions are relatively small (e.g., for the USGS Hydro-Climatic Data Network streamflow sites). By closing this message, you are consenting to our use of cookies. The strategy for model calibration used in the CBCCSP was to calibrate 11 relatively large sub-basins within the domain (Fig. Ten GCM projections for the A1B scenario and nine projections for the B1 scenario (Table 1) were selected based on a ranking of the GCMs reflecting the combined ability of each GCM to reproduce key features of PNW climate variability, including the seasonal cycle of precipitation, observed trends in temperature in the late twentieth century, bias in reproducing historical temperature and precipitation, and ability to capture key features of observed climate variability (spatial patterns of temperature, pressure, and precipitation) over the North Pacific (Mote & Salath, Citation2010). Daily streamflow data from the CD and HD downscaling methods are first processed to extract the peak daily flow in each water year of the simulations (91 years). Peak flows actually increase at many sites in Canada because of increasing fall, winter, and spring precipitation in this part of the domain, although the peak flow also occurs about a month earlier. The summary figures for water balance variables at each site have the same format, two examples of which are shown in Fig. By the end of the twenty-first century, essentially the entire state is classified as rain-dominant for the A1B scenario, and the B1 scenario is only slightly different (Fig. Highs in the lower to mid 60s. (*Modified flows are essentially naturalized flows with a consistent level of consumptive demand for water supply subtracted for the entire time series.). Les principaux produits de ltude comprennent des donnes sommaires pour environ 300 sites fluviaux dans la rgion pacifique nordouest et des produits mensuels de Systme d'information gographique pour 21 variables hydrologiques couvrant tout le domaine ltude. The greater Mississippi River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in North America and the fourth largest basin in the world.
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